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Kougaenko, A.A.: DYN-Prognoz tool using in economic processes forecasting

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Kougaenko, A.A.

DYN-Prognoz tool using in economic processes forecasting

Издательство: Капитал и культура
Переплет: мягкий; 48 страниц; 2018 г.
ISBN: 978-5-86976-377-8; Формат: стандартный
Язык: русский
На сайте с 22.06.2020

Аннотация

This paper describes DYN-Prognoz tool (DYN) intended for use in the forecasting of conomic,social, financial, political etc. processes changes caused by realization of economic system expected managements. DYN-tool has been detailed in "Economic cybernetics", the book by A. A. Kugaenko. This tool allows the following:
• modeling the socioeconomic, financial and political objects;
• searching for the management strategies applied to the processes and future structures of objects listed;
• estimating the capacity of proposes on economic processes management behavior;
• forecasting the processes and objects structure changes with respect to preselected management methods;
• revealing the root causes and future conditions for establishment and breaking-up of various economic, financial and political associations (units, unions, coalitions etc.);
• working-out of recommendations on development strategies with an allowance for future endogenous and exogenous conditions;
• training in process management at socioeconomic objects and thereof structure changes forecasting.
Brief and simplified description of innovative, not existing before method allowing mathematical representation of processes in socioeconomic objects classified as nonlinear cybernetic (with feedbacks) or complex (with cross-relations) systems with persistent changes of its structures is given herein. DYN-tool allows forecasting not only socioeconomic processes changes including its because reasons but also the flexibility of economic structures creating at first sight unexpected, random processes, which, on closer examination, can be correctly forecasted and managed thereby. In this paper known conventional economic and mathematical methods together with concerning theories inaptitude for application at national economy monitoring and control presented as well as invalidity thereof for economy dynamics forecasting. It is recommended to use DYN-Prognoz tool for national economy crisisfree management strategies working-out and estimating of economic proposes and offered reforms before implementation thereof as well as rising specialists training in economic dynamics management


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